Thu, 02 Apr 2020

Rory favorite, but money on DeChambeau in Mexico

Field Level Media
20 Feb 2020, 09:25 GMT+10

Rory McIlroy has four consecutive top-five finishes to begin the season and is understandably the odds-on favorite entering this week's WGC-Mexico Championship.

McIlroy was tied for the lead at the Genesis Invitational last Sunday before a triple-bogey thwarted his hopes at Riviera. However, theworld's top-ranked player finished second in Mexico City last year and is 500 at FanDuel and 600 at DraftKings this week.

McIlroy's odds strengthened with several top players opting to skip this week's event, including No. 2 Brooks Koepka and No. 9 Tiger Woods. No. 6 Patrick Cantlay is out indefinitely because of upcoming surgery to fix a deviated septum.

Defending champion Dustin Johnson is 800 at both books despite suffering his own late meltdown at Riviera. He is a two-time winner and has posted 11 consecutive rounds in the 60s at Club de Golf Chapultepec.

FedEx Cup leader Justin Thomas and Spain's Jon Rahm are 1000 at both books, followed by Webb Simpson at 1600 coming off his victory at the Phoenix Open earlier this month. FanDuel is also offering Adam Scott, a winner in his past two starts who won in Mexico City four years ago, at 1600.

The odds between the books begin to fluctuate at that point. Of interest is Bryson DeChambeau, who is 2800 at DraftKings but responsible for a field-high 9 percent of the handle as of Wednesday.

That topped England's Tommy Fleetwood, who was at 2200 with 8 percent of the handle, and 7 percent for Johnson. Some big bets had been placed on DeChambeau, who was responsible for only 5 percent of the total bets compared to a field-high 7 percent for Johnson and 6 percent for Fleetwood.

The 16th-ranked DeChambeau hasn't won an event since the Dubai Desert Classic 13 months ago. However, he is coming off a T5 at Riviera and the bulked-up DeChambeau could be a sneaky bet at the Club de Golf Chapultepec, which has always favored longer hitters as it has a low elevation point of 7,603 feet above sea level.

Other players to note include:

--Justin Thomas (1000 at DraftKings) is coming off a missed cut at Riviera, but he has finished in the top-10 in each of his past three starts in the event -- including posting two rounds of 62.

--Xander Schauffele (2000) has six top-20 finishes in 10 career WGC starts.

--Mexico's Abraham Ancer (6000) enters the event ranked No. 29. He was No. 260 two years ago and No. 61 last year -- quite the meteoric rise. He finished runner-up at The American Express last month before placing T6 at the Saudi International and T43 last week.

Both books are offering numerous prop bets.

FanDuel typically offers a winning prop bet with the favorites pulled out of the mix. This week, the book is removing McIlroy, Johnson, Rahm and Thomas and offering:

--Adam Scott (1100)

--Webb Simpson (1100)

--Tommy Fleetwood (1300)

--Hideki Matsuyama (1400)

--Xander Schauffele (1500)

--Bryson DeChambeau (1600)

--Collin Morikawa (2200)

--Paul Casey (2200)

--Gary Woodland (2600)

--Louis Oosthuizen (2600)

--Marc Leishman (2600)

--Matt Kuchar (2600)

Among DraftKing's numerous props are odds on how the tournament will be decided.

--By a Playoff: Yes (400), No (-715)

--By a 3-Man Playoff: Yes (1200)

--By a 4-Man Playoff: Yes (6600)

--Winner to Birdie the 72nd hole: Yes (334), No (-500)

--Winner to Par the 72nd hole: Yes (-250), No (175)

--Winner to Bogey the 72nd hole: Yes (500), No (-1000)

--Wire-to-wire winner? Yes (1000)

--Field Level Media

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